An Indirect Path to Accuracy in Election Polling

Representative Charles Rangel of New York has a nine-point lead over his nearest primary challenger, in a new New York Times/NY1/Siena College poll of likely voters. …

In addition to asking residents of the state’s 13th Congressional District which candidate they planned to vote for, the poll also asked them which candidate they expected to win. … Prediction questions like this one have an impressive record of pointing to the winner in political races. CONT.

David Leonhardt, New York Times

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