Ethnic and regional divisions drove first-round ballot choices in Afghanistan’s presidential election and point now to a dead heat in a runoff between the top two finishers, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani. Yet large majorities of Afghans also say they can set aside their tribal preferences and accept the ultimate winner – a hopeful sign for the country’s future.
A national survey in the Afghan Futures series, conducted in mid-March by ACSOR-Surveys with design and analysis by Langer Research Associates, finds essentially a 50-50 split between Abdullah and Ghani among likely voters, with ethnic Pashtuns, who splintered in the first round, coalescing around Ghani. Abdullah counters with two-thirds support from Tajiks and Hazaras, two other key groups in the country’s tribal mix. A fourth group, Uzbeks, broadly back Ghani. CONT.
Langer Research Associates