Much of the debate about elections today revolves around the “Emerging Democratic Majority” thesis, taken from the 2002 book of the same name. The thesis is pretty straightforward: Because of demographic changes, the GOP is on a path toward irrelevance unless it can remake itself and appeal to the rising electorate.
The theory has congealed into something of conventional wisdom among those who follow politics, at least as it relates to presidential elections. I’ve long been a skeptic of the argument. It’s not that I believe that it is impossible or necessarily wrong. I just think there is insufficient evidence to support a conclusion that we’re drifting toward a situation where Republicans are locked out of the White House except in the worst of circumstances. CONT.
Sean Trende, Sabato’s Crystal Ball