Today we are releasing our first survey of the 2014 landscape, a cooperative endeavor conducted with Democracy Corps for NPR. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted the calls March 19-23, 2014, and compiled the data. The survey polled 840 likely 2014 voters nationally. The sample contains 6 percentage points more Democrats than Republicans, 37 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, consistent with other national polling of likely voters.
With seven months to go before the election, the political environment looks remarkably promising for Republicans. Six factors create that environment:
1. The midterm election in the sixth year of a president’s term has been bad news for the party controlling the White House for a century, and this year looks like no exception. (The one time the pattern did not hold was 1998 when Bill Clinton enjoyed an approval rating in the mid 60s, far above Barack Obama’s job approval today.) Obama fatigue weighs on all Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.
2. The demographics of midterm elections favor Republicans over Democrats. White and elderly voters constitute a larger share of midterm electorates, groups where Republican candidates run particularly well.
3. Obamacare remains unpopular, especially among Independents who hold the balance of power in midterm elections.
4. President Obama’s job approval remains stuck in the low to mid 40s.
5. The generic ballot—a preference for a Republican versus a Democratic candidate for Congress—is essentially even, which has historically been good for Republicans.
6. The Senate seats up in 2014 strongly favor Republicans. Only one Republican-held seat is up in a blue state, Susan Collins in Maine where she is strongly favored. Seven Democratic-held seats are up in red states that Romney carried convincingly in 2012, and another five Democratic-held seats are up in purple or swing states. If Republicans win half of those twelve Democratic-held seats, they will take over the Senate assuming they hold all the Republican seats.
The overall political environment in 2014 resembles 2010 far more closely than 2012. While Republicans could not possibly match the historic 63-seat pickup in the House that they achieved in 2010, as of today the chances are better than even that they will take control of the Senate and add to their majority in the House in 2014. CONT.
Whit Ayres, Jon McHenry & Luke Frans, Resurgent Republic