History Suggests It Might Not Get Better For Democrats

… Currently, the generic ballot is roughly a tie among registered voters (that’s bad news for Democrats, who tend to underperform the generic ballot in midterm elections).

If history is any guide (it might not be), Democrats (the party of President Obama) are unlikely to see meaningful improvement in their generic ballot numbers. Gallup has asked some form of the generic ballot question in every midterm since 1938. To see how it has changed from this point on in midterm-election years, I took an average of these surveys conducted during January, February and March and compared it to the October average. CONT.

Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight

Recent polls: Generic congressional ballot | Presidential approval

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