… Pessimism about Democratic prospects this November rests mainly on the macro-environment of the election. President Obama’s approval rating is mired in the low 40s, as is public approval of the Affordable Care Act. …
Republicans seem to have a strategy for 2014: steer away from issues that divide the base, avoid nominating unelectable yahoos, and focus relentlessly on public discontent about the ACA. Meanwhile, Democrats are at odds over the Keystone pipeline, and Latino frustration over deportations and the lack of progress toward immigration reform is spilling over into public protest, some of it directed at the president.
The state-by-state environment for the election doesn’t look a lot brighter. Consider the races where the results don’t seem foreordained—9 seats now held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans— in the context of President Obama’s approval ratings: CONT.
Bill Galston, Brookings Institution