A year ago, almost everyone who followed Virginia politics thought that Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) had the inside track to winning the governorship. … So it’s actually noteworthy that McAuliffe won by any margin. Ultimately, Cuccinelli was just too socially conservative for a moderate swing state that is trending away from its traditional roots. That said, the results contain bad news for both parties, if that’s possible. …
As we assess the big failure of the public polling industry in surveying this race — public polling averages showed McAuliffe up by about seven percentage points, and the Wednesday afternoon tally showed him only up 2.5 points — we’re reminded of 2012. In hindsight, it seems like the best polling done in that race was not by any public pollster, but instead by the pollsters working for the Obama campaign. It’s possible that the same is true of the McAuliffe campaign. CONT.
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball