… Mr. Markey now leads by margins ranging from 7 to 11 percentage points in a series of recent nonpartisan polls. With the vote to be held in just eight days, on June 25, Mr. Gomez’s chances for a victory are even slimmer than before. …
Our fundamentals-based model, which evaluates the public fund-raising totals along with other factors, like the ideological positions of the candidates relative to the state, would now project Mr. Markey to win the contest by roughly 12 percentage points, not far from the recent polls.
By contrast, the same model would have seen the 2010 race as a tossup by this point in the campaign on the basis of Mr. Brown’s superior fund-raising totals and the national political environment, which had already come to be Republican-leaning. [cont.]
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)