My rule of thumb is that a vast majority of alleged political scandals will have less electoral impact than the conventional wisdom initially holds. …
But the recent admission by the Internal Revenue Service that it targeted conservative organizations with terms like “Tea Party” or “Patriot” in their names when they applied for tax-exempt status could be an exception. It has the potential to harm Democrats’ performance in next year’s midterm elections, partly by motivating a strong turnout from the Republican base. [cont.]
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)