Virginia Is Much More Important Than South Carolina

… There have been times when a special congressional election told us something about the national political environment, but those instances are few and far between. More often, the districts bear little resemblance to the country as a whole, or the circumstances of a race are so extenuating that any suggestion of deeper meaning is a stretch.

The outcome of New Jersey’s gubernatorial election in November is similarly unlikely to have great import. Although the Garden State has a distinctive blue political coloring, GOP incumbent Chris Christie most likely will make mincemeat of the sacrificial lamb Democrats choose to oppose him.

Arguably, this fall’s Virginia gubernatorial race will be a better test. [cont.]

Charlie Cook

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