Why It’s Difficult to Predict the Outcome of Sanford vs. Colbert Busch

Presidential elections are relatively easy to analyze. The economic fundamentals provide an early handicap of the outcome, and by the end the countless polls are so accurate that you often need to try to get presidential elections wrong, as hopeful partisans do. A special congressional election with two unusual candidates—in today’s case, disgraced former governor Mark Sanford (R-Appalachian Trail) and businesswoman Elizabeth Colbert Busch, Stephen Colbert’s sister—is far more challenging. [cont.]

Nate Cohn, New Republic

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