A poll released on Tuesday by Marist College shows former Representative Anthony Weiner running in second place in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York. Mr. Weiner has 15 percent of the vote, behind Christine C. Quinn, the City Council speaker, at 26 percent.
Some poll-watchers are citing the survey as an encouraging one for Mr. Weiner, who has told reporters that he is considering entering the mayor’s race. But in my view, a more careful examination of the poll results — and a consideration of the 40 percent runoff rule that New York will apply in its primary — should yield the conclusion that Mr. Weiner’s chances are remote. [cont.]
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)