In the wake of the first 2012 presidential debate, as former governor Mitt Romney gained ground in swing-state and especially national polls, a narrative took hold about the importance of the auto bailout. The Buckeye State was likely to decide the election, President Obama was over-performing in Ohio relative the country at large, and the Obama-backed bailout of Chrysler and General Motors was the reason why. …
Nate Cohn of The New Republic and Matt Yglesias of Slate have expressed skepticism, pointing out that Obama’s margin in Ohio of just under 2 percentage points is consistent with its typical performance as leaning very slightly Republican. Here, I want to add to that skepticism by looking at county-level vote shares alongside the location of Chrysler, GM, and Ford plants. [cont.]
Dan Hopkins, Georgetown U. (Washington Post)