In case you hadn’t heard, there was a big storm right before the election. Despite no real evidence, pundits, and even some scholars, have tried to demonstrate an effect of Hurricane Sandy on the election outcome. Is it possible that it had an effect?
The likelihood that the hurricane had an effect on the election is exceedingly small. The final votes in states were remarkably close to estimates from polling averages that had been compiled before the storm and the places where Obama over-performed were predicted as over-performers by poll watchers long before the storm and, in fact, were not systematically related to the storm in any obvious way. ..
The very small or zero effect of the storm is entirely predictable because it is well-understood that voters interpret issues and events through a partisan lens (most Republicans did not approve of Obama’s handling of the storm, most Democrats did not approve of Romney’s). “October surprises” – even of the superstorm variety – are exceedingly difficult to find in American politics, because partisanship leaves little room for surprise. [cont.]
Ryan D. Enos, Harvard (Model Politics)