Polling, Likely Voters, and the Law of the Commons

… We would always like to make a final poll estimate that is exactly on target with the final popular vote percentage for both candidates. That is the goal. But our estimate (and almost all other national polls at the end), gave a broadly accurate picture of what was, in fact, a very close popular vote.

As we have always done, we here at Gallup will continue to review all aspects of our election polling, from sample development, to interviewing, to data processing, to statistical weighting, to final analysis. [cont.]

Frank Newport, Gallup

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