If you think the “fundamentals” (and by the “fundamentals,” I mean the economy) were stacked in Mitt Romney’s favor in the 2012 presidential election, you’re not alone. You share the prevailing beliefs of many political observers. …
Most versions of their explanations go something like this: the fundamentals were in the Republicans’ favor, but the Democrats overcame them with better ads, a better “ground game,” successful appeals to a racially diverse electorate, or a better candidate.
These observations make for interesting and colorful post-mortem accounts of the campaign, but they start from a premise that happens to be false. [cont.]
Patrick Egan, NYU (The Monkey Cage)