Much of the coverage of Tuesday’s results has focused on the strength of Barack Obama’s coalition — minorities, women and young voters. But that analysis misses the real point. The contours of the 2012 presidential race were shaped less by the country’s changing demographics than by the underlying attitudes and values of American voters, who are always far more complex than they appear to pollsters. …
From the 2012 campaign’s earliest days, analysts focused on historic economic and political metrics to explain the steep uphill climb Mr. Obama faced in his re-election bid: no sitting president had been re-elected with unemployment higher than 7.2 percent; or the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below 78 percent; or the “right track” rating for the country as low as it was.
Such conventional indicators failed to capture the mind-set of the American people who always had a broader view of the nation’s economic situation and what had happened to their lives. [cont.]
Joel Benenson, chief pollster, Obama for America (NYT)