Jay has finished gathering the last of the state and national polling data and we now have a final forecast:
Electoral College: Obama 303, Romney 235
National Popular Vote (two-party): Obama 51.4%, Romney 48.6%
Based state and national polls, as well as historical patterns of party support in the states, Mitt Romney has a tough road to 270. It’s certainly not impossible for him to get there, but he has many more obstacles to overcome than Obama does.
Romney’s best prospect for stealing states from the Obama column are Virginia and Colorado, both of which turned blue in our model in just the last couple of days. [cont.]
Tom Holbrook, UW-Milwaukee (Politics by the Numbers)