Back in 2000, before 538 and Pollster existed, we circulated a simulation of Electoral College outcomes using state polls. Our forecast was a likely Gore win, with a likelihood of 85%. We saw Florida as pivotal, and Gore as having an 89% chance of winning. Of course, the accuracy of this prediction was thwarted by the butterfly ballot and other problems in Florida. Otherwise our forecast performed very well.
Just for fun, we replicated our 2000 exercise to forecast 2012. [cont.]
Robert Erikson & Karl Sigman, Columbia U. (The Monkey Cage)