There’s been a lot of speculation recently about how the remaining undecided voters will break over the next few days. …
Even with the sampling noise in our data and other associated uncertainties (is the model appropriately capturing all the drivers of choice? Who will really turn out and vote?), 55-45 is still the best guess from these data about the likely split – it’s either that or there’s too much noise to say much of anything at all. [cont.]
Lynn Vavreck, UCLA (Model Politics)