As I pointed out at the end of August, I see political and economic context of the election as favoring Mitt Romney, though not overwhelmingly so. …
But one thing I find interesting is that despite a reversal of fortunes in the last few weeks, there seems to be a clear floor below which Obama’s support will not fall, and Mitt Romney has not been able to do any better than draw even or periodically take a very narrow lead.
One thing that may be benefiting Obama could have little to do with the standard indicators of national conditions and may have even less to do with either of the candidates or their campaigns. Simply put, I think a case can be made that the Republican brand name is acting as a drag on Mitt Romney’s candidacy. [cont.]
Tom Holbrook, UW-Milwaukee (Politics by the Numbers)