The conventional wisdom about this year’s presidential race is that it has broken out of stasis to become wildly unpredictable.
And yet, after a period of polling turmoil following President Obama’s convention in Charlotte, N.C., and Mitt Romney’s sharp rebound after the first presidential debate in Denver, the polling in most swing states now looks very similar to the way it did for much of the late spring and summer. [cont.]
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)