Deciphering election polling, from algorithms and youth votes to the Electoral College

The outcome of the 2016 general election in the United States was momentous and surprising. Yet some commentaries seem to suggest that means we need to rethink our basic understandings of voters and elections. I disagree, albeit gently, with that kind of hyperbole. Here’s why. CONT. Laura Stoker, Berkeley Read more »

How Trump Pushed Millennials Out of the Republican Party

… Even with the race’s late turmoil, Trump still faces long odds against overcoming Clinton’s lead in enough states to win. But Democrats can’t be entirely certain that Trump’s visceral connection with blue-collar, older, and non-urban whites won’t allow him to squeeze out a narrow victory. The problem for Republicans […] Read more »

Still live near your hometown? If you’re white, you’re more likely to support Trump

… Hillary Clinton has expanded her support among likely voters compared to the previous week. Currently, 47% of likely voters say they are supporting or leaning toward supporting Clinton, compared to 41% who report they are supporting Donald Trump. One week earlier, before the first presidential debate, Clinton and Trump […] Read more »