A 2016 Review: Turnout Wasn’t the Driver of Clinton’s Defeat

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout. Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected. To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was […] Read more »

Democrats burned by polling blind spot

As they investigate the forces behind the party’s stunning losses in November, Democrats are coming to a troubling conclusion. The party didn’t just lose among rural white voters on Election Day, it may have failed to capture them in its pre-election polling as well. Many pollsters and strategists believe that […] Read more »

Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century

In “Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century,” Princeton Professors Anne Case and Angus Deaton follow up on their groundbreaking 2015 paper that revealed a shocking increase in midlife mortality among white non-Hispanic Americans, exploring patterns and contributing factors to the troubling trend. Case and Deaton find that while midlife […] Read more »

Can Trumpism Last Without Minority Voters?

… One of Trump’s most frequently expressed goals is reconstructing the GOP as a “worker’s party” that appeals to blue-collar Americans across racial lines. Key Trump supporters recognize that building an enduring coalition will depend on attracting more working-class black, Hispanic, and other minority voters to the agenda of economic […] Read more »

Young Adults Increasingly Pessimistic about the Direction of the Country but Energized about Politics

A new GenForward survey released today shows that about 70 percent of African American, Asian American, and Latino/a young adults disapprove of Donald Trump’s first days in office while 55 percent of young whites say the same. More than 6 in 10 report he is doing badly in terms of […] Read more »

Majority of Americans Oppose Transgender Bathroom Restrictions

Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Americans oppose allowing small business owners in their state to refuse to provide products or services to gay or lesbian people if doing so violates their religious beliefs. Roughly one-third (32%) support such religiously based service refusals. … After plateauing in 2015, support for same-sex marriage […] Read more »

Donald Trump’s Political Stew

… The 2016 election and its aftermath have produced turmoil on the right while once again forcing into public view worrisome long-term trends in the Democratic electorate. … One of the mainstays of Democratic optimism is the conviction that a growing body of young voters — more liberal than their […] Read more »