Report on ‘Voter Fraud’ Rife With Inaccuracies

I look forward to a more detailed analysis by voter registration and database match experts of the GAI report that will be presented to the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity, but even a cursory reading reveals a number of serious misunderstandings and confusions that call into question that authors’ […] Read more »

2018 Could Be The Year Of The Angry White College Graduate

Even with the political winds at their back, Democrats enter the 2018 congressional midterms at a historic geographic disadvantage. They also face demographic hurdles: Midterm electorates tend to be older and whiter than those that show up in presidential years. That’s part of the reason Republicans picked up so many […] Read more »

Democracy Fund Voter Study Group to Release Full Longitudinal Dataset of 8,000 2016 Voters

Select members of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (Voter Study Group), a research collaboration comprised of nearly two dozen analysts and scholars from across the political spectrum, will present key findings from their research at the 2017 American Political Science Association (APSA) Annual Meeting in San Francisco. In advance […] Read more »

Did enough Bernie Sanders supporters vote for Trump to cost Clinton the election?

On Tuesday night, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was in Detroit to host a town hall meeting with Rep. John Conyers Jr. (D-Mich.). It felt, writes The Washington Post’s Dave Weigel, like a “campaign rally.” Indeed, Sanders is still being discussed as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 2020. New […] Read more »

The Obama-Trump Voters Are Real. Here’s What They Think.

The story of the 2016 presidential election is simple. Donald J. Trump made huge gains among white voters without a college degree. His gains were large enough to cancel out considerable losses among well-educated white voters and a decade of demographic shifts. There are questions and details still up for […] Read more »

Mixed Messages on Enthusiasm and Engagement

One of the most important factors in every election is turnout. Predicting who turns out, of course, is tricky. History tells us that angry people vote. The more enraged a voter is about issues/the political environment/the candidates, the more engaged in the election they will be. There’s also been a […] Read more »

Two Nations

As the 2016 election dramatically revealed, the United States has split into two political nations. In each of those distinct coalitions, the majority Republican or Democratic Party separately controls at least two-thirds of the presidential Electoral Votes, the seats in Congress, and the governorships. That leaves the balance of power […] Read more »

Historical Trends in White Political Behavior Along Educational Lines

A longstanding topic of interest, the voting behavior of working class white population–and socioeconomic divides in voting patterns more broadly–once again attracted considerable attention during and after the 2016 election. Some assessments that have historically contextualized the low SES white vote have showed that this group voted more Republican than […] Read more »