Could Roy Moore flip deep-red Alabama to blue?

As allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore multiply and polls suggest he could lose the senate race he once led by double-digits, political analysts offer one cautionary refrain: Remember, it’s Alabama and he’s a Republican. But a look at Moore’s last general election in the state shows its voters […] Read more »

GOP tax plans could fuel the suburban revolt against Trump

After a suburban firestorm in last week’s elections, House Speaker Paul Ryan is now asking his Republican members from suburbia to put out the fire with gasoline In the House of Representatives, Republicans representing white-collar districts were understandably unnerved by a roaring backlash against President Donald Trump in last week’s […] Read more »

How Democrats Can Extend the Winning Streak Into 2018

After a year of self-flagellation and angst, Democrats finally got some good news last week. But they shouldn’t get carried away: They also got some bad news. First the bad news: Rural America still really dislikes Democrats. But that wasn’t a surprise. The good news came in increasingly affluent and […] Read more »

Top Five Takeaways from the 2017 Elections

The 2017 elections were quite a revelation. Pretty much everywhere where the Republicans could have lost, they lost. … One must be cautious in reading too much into any one election, especially a non-federal one where electoral contests were irregularly scattered around the country. But there are some important takeaways […] Read more »

Beyond Virginia: How America’s Big Counties Are Reshaping Politics

Whether they want it or not, the last year has given Americans a master class in political polarization. But the terminology commonly used to describe the peeling apart of the country’s Republican and Democratic factions — “red states and blue states,” “coastal elitists vs. flyover country” and the like — […] Read more »

Inside the Data: What the Virginia Election Results Mean for ‘18

The Democratic Party’s big wins in Virginia this week, from the governor’s race on down, have sparked intense if somewhat predictable reactions from the nation’s two major political parties. Democrats are hailing Governor-elect Ralph Northam’s win as evidence of an electorate that has turned decidedly against President Donald Trump, buoying […] Read more »

How Republican losses in Virginia could mean real trouble for the GOP in 2018

In 1897, an earthquake that hit 5.8 on the Richter scale shook Virginia and was felt across 12 other states. Six months later, William McKinley’s Republican Party experienced its own disaster in Virginia, losing 15 seats in the state House of Delegates. Not until Tuesday night did another such earthquake […] Read more »

Laws of Political Gravity Dragging Down Republicans

About a year ago at this time, many of us in Washington, DC were trying to catch our breath, still reeling from the political upset that blindsided us. Many of us were wondering if the rulebook of politics—the one all of us had been dutifully following for years—should be thrown […] Read more »

The One County In America That Voted In A Landslide For Both Trump And Obama

In the year since President Trump pulled off his stunning upset of Hillary Clinton, Democrats have blamed the result on all kinds of factors: James Comey’s letter, Russian hackers, voter suppression, Jill Stein’s candidacy and depressed African-American turnout, to name a few. The truth? In an election decided by fractions […] Read more »