Do Republicans Really Have A Big Turnout Advantage In Midterms?

Democrats got the best of Republicans during the 2017 election season, outperforming expectations in special elections across the country and easily winning the only two governors races. Much of that success came down to turnout — the Democratic base came out and voted. It’s now 2018, though. A midterm year. […] Read more »

Does the White Working Class Really Vote Against Its Own Interests?

As his first year in the White House draws to a close, Donald J. Trump remains in almost every respect a singular character. He exists well outside the boundaries of what most observers previously judged possible, let alone respectable, in American politics. To catalogue the norms he has violated, the […] Read more »

Explaining Trump Some More

It’s over a year now, but academics, journalists, and political junkies still cannot get their fill–nor can I–of addressing the question, Why Trump? … Studies have accumulated showing that the distinctiveness of Trump’s core supporters in the primaries and among new or swing voters in the general election lies less […] Read more »

19 Things We Learned from the 2016 Election

We can all agree that the presidential election result was a shocker. According to news reports, even the Trump campaign team was stunned to come up a winner. So now seems like a good time to go over various theories floating around in political science and political reporting and see […] Read more »

Democrats have a new Southern strategy

With Doug Jones’ upset victory in last week’s Alabama US Senate race, Democrats are solidifying a new model for rebuilding their tattered competitiveness in the South. Jones benefited from the unique vulnerabilities of his opponent, Republican Roy Moore, who was a deeply polarizing figure even before he was besieged by […] Read more »

Inside the Alabama election, a lesson for the GOP in 2018

By most any political estimation, last week’s Alabama special Senate election was an outlier. Democrats generally don’t win statewide races in Alabama and Doug Jones likely wouldn’t have if a series of child molestation stories hadn’t surfaced about Republican candidate Roy Moore. But tallies out of Alabama’s biggest vote-producing counties […] Read more »

Democrats Could Claim a New American Majority. Will They?

The Alabama special election for the Senate affirms that the coalition that elected and re-elected an African-American as president of the United States remains a majority of the country’s population. By combining a large and inspired turnout of voters of color with the meaningful minority of whites who consistently vote […] Read more »