The End of the 114th Congress

The 114th Congress has finally ended. The most polarized Congress since the early 20th Century and one where almost all issues have been drawn into the first dimension [we will address dimensionality in a future post; the current period is unique in American history]. CONT. Voteview Read more »

Poll Shows Republicans Less Committed to Trump in Defeat

Republican primary voters strongly backed Donald Trump for the presidential nomination, but the party is far less sure if it wants him to lead the GOP if he loses in November. When asked in the latest Bloomberg Politics poll who should be the face of the party nationally in the […] Read more »

No, disgruntled primary losers won’t vote for the other party in November

… Some scholars say hotly contested primaries encourage voters to support the final candidate in a general election; others say that bitter partisans may support alternative candidates. To explore this question, we looked at vote choice in the 2008 presidential election, which, as is true in 2016, had no incumbent […] Read more »

Despite Bernie Sanders’ Crowds, Hillary Clinton Ahead In Oregon

A new poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump headed toward primary victories next week in Oregon — and suggests Clinton holds a strong lead over Trump as both pivot toward the November general election. DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB […] Read more »

Wrapping up a Wild Ride: A 2016 Exit Poll Review

What was that all about? “That” is the wild ride of the 2016 primary season, and ABC News exit polls conducted across the primaries provide illuminating answers. For Republicans, it was about demand for an outsider fueled by profound disenchantment with economic and political conditions. For the Democrats, a deep […] Read more »

Global Warming and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

… Fewer than half of any candidate’s supporters are aware that virtually all climate scientists have concluded human-caused global warming is happening. However, supporters of the Democratic candidates are the most likely to think at least 90% of climate scientists are convinced (Sanders: 38%, Clinton: 27%). Far fewer supporters of […] Read more »