Could the California Democrats’ supermajority become their kryptonite?

Riding a wave of anti-Trump sentiment, Democrats in California were able to cobble together enough State Assembly and Senate seats to give them a two-thirds supermajority in both chambers. Their strengthened majorities have emboldened them to pursue a liberal agenda, but the latest polling data suggests they may be overreaching […] Read more »

The Normal Rules Of Politics Still Apply To Trump — And To Republicans In Congress

One of the big questions heading into the 2018 midterm elections — maybe the biggest — is how President Trump’s unpopularity will affect Republican fortunes. Normally, a president with historically low approval ratings would be a disaster for his party in Senate and House races in a midterm year. But […] Read more »

Analysis indicates partisan gerrymandering has benefited GOP

The 2016 presidential contest was awash with charges that the fix was in: Republican Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that the election was rigged against him, while Democrats have accused the Russians of stacking the odds in Trump’s favor. Less attention was paid to manipulation that occurred not during the presidential […] Read more »

Republicans are predicting the beginning of the end of the tea party in Kansas

Kansas was at the heart of the tea party revolution, a red state where, six years ago, a deeply conservative group of Republicans took the state for a hard right turn. Now, after their policies failed to produce the results GOP politicians promised, the state has become host to another […] Read more »

Democrats Are Overperforming In Special Elections Almost Everywhere

Republican Greg Gianforte’s 6 percentage point win in last month’s Montana special election was just ambiguous enough that both sides could find something to like. … Luckily, however, U.S. House elections aren’t the only special elections that have taken place this year. Since Trump took office, voters have gone to […] Read more »

Democratic Norms Are Under Attack, and Not Just by Trump

Shortly after last year’s election, Andrew Reynolds made a startling assertion. The University of North Carolina political scientist, who had helped devise a formula for measuring the vitality of democracies, wrote a newspaper column claiming his state’s restrictions on voting and its unwillingness to follow established rules “means our state […] Read more »