The places that will decide the 2018 midterm elections

Red pockets. Romneyland. Blue-collar blues. Those labels describe the three groups of seats in the House of Representatives that will likely determine control of the chamber in November’s midterm election. … This battlefield reflects the long-term trends that have seen Democrats demonstrate increasing strength up and down the ballot in […] Read more »

White Women in the Rustbelt Are Turning on Trump

A massive new measure of state-by-state attitudes toward Donald Trump offers important clues about the pressure points that could tip the 2018 elections. Last week, Gallup released Trump’s average approval rating in all 50 states in 2017, based on more than 171,000 survey interviews it conducted over the course of […] Read more »

The math is clear: Democrats need to win more working-class white votes

Following the noteworthy Democratic successes in the 2017 elections, we’re once again hearing that Democrats can achieve their electoral goals without any greater success among the white working class. Indeed, some on the left seem to feel that Democratic gestures toward the white working class would not only be ineffective […] Read more »

Hope from the Heartland: How Democrats Can Better Serve the Midwest by Bringing Rural, Working Class Wisdom to Washington

Democrats’ national level of support has seen better days. Much better. By the numbers, Democrats are at their lowest in nearly 100 years. While the party had a successful night in off-year elections on Nov. 7, 2017, and in the Dec. 12, 2017, special election in Alabama for U.S. Senate, […] Read more »

The Voters Abandoning Donald Trump

A massive new source of public-opinion research offers fresh insights into the fault lines emerging in Donald Trump’s foundation of support. Previously unpublished results from the nonpartisan online-polling firm SurveyMonkey show Trump losing ground over his tumultuous first year not only with the younger voters and white-collar whites who have […] Read more »

Robots Can’t Vote, but They Helped Elect Trump

When you look across America to see where jobs and wages have been lost to robotics, machine learning, artificial intelligence and automation, it is the middle of the country that stands apart from the rest. The accompanying map, which was produced by Daron Acemoglu of M.I.T. and Pascual Restrepo of […] Read more »

Does the White Working Class Really Vote Against Its Own Interests?

As his first year in the White House draws to a close, Donald J. Trump remains in almost every respect a singular character. He exists well outside the boundaries of what most observers previously judged possible, let alone respectable, in American politics. To catalogue the norms he has violated, the […] Read more »