The Politics of #HimToo

The issue of sexual misconduct has emerged as a centerpiece of Democratic strategy for taking on President Trump and the Republican Party. That strategy paid off on Tuesday with the defeat of Roy Moore. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s decision to bring to center stage charges of sexual harassment leveled by more […] Read more »

Alabama: How Jones Won

Democrat Doug Jones’ victory in yesterday’s special election surprised much of the political world, and it has created ripples that will be felt until Election Day in 2018. But, as is often the tendency with upsets, “pundits” were quick to hit cable news channels to make apocalyptic predications about what […] Read more »

Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier

I’ve been covering American elections at FiveThirtyEight for almost 10 years. During that time, by far the most remarkable outcomes — of course — were Barack Obama being elected president in 2008 and Donald Trump being elected in 2016. But in third and fourth place1 were two special elections to […] Read more »

‘A spiritual battle:’ How Roy Moore tested white evangelical allegiance to the Republican Party

Roy Moore’s failed run for Alabama’s Senate seat tested white evangelicals’ allegiance to the Republican Party. Would they vote for a candidate who shares their conservative views on social issues even though he was accused of sexual misconduct by multiple women? Exit polls suggest they did just that, with 80 […] Read more »

Doug Jones wins Alabama — Fox News voter analysis summary

Doug Jones became the first Democratic Senator from Alabama in two decades in a stunning result that brings the Republican majority down to just a single seat. Jones’s victory marked the end of a highly unusual special election to fill the seat vacated by Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Jones carried […] Read more »

Alabama’s women wrote the verdict on Roy Moore

Women drew the line at Roy Moore. There are many reasons why Moore became the first Republican nominee to lose an Alabama Senate race since 1992 on Tuesday night, including a strong turnout by African-American voters and a lack of enthusiasm among Moore’s base. But with Moore denying multiple allegations […] Read more »

Key Takeaways From Doug Jones’s Alabama Victory

Doug Jones’s defeat of Roy S. Moore in Tuesday’s bitterly fought special Senate election was one of the most unlikely upsets in recent campaign history. But the Democrats’ victory in Alabama carries some more immediate political implications. A Suburban Shellacking Voters in Alabama’s cities and most affluent suburbs overwhelmingly rejected […] Read more »

Democrats find winning formula in Alabama, Trump ‘resistance’ meets #MeToo

Democrats found a way to win in Trump country. And they did it against a candidate who sought to run the playbook written by President Donald Trump. Doug Jones secured himself three years in the Senate as a Democrat from Alabama despite the forces of Trump and Trumpism, the partial […] Read more »

Exit polls: How Doug Jones pulled off his stunning win

Doug Jones needed a surge of black voter turnout and a wide gender gap to pull off his stunning victory over embattled Republican Roy Moore in Tuesday’s special Senate election. In becoming the first Democrat to win a statewide federal election in Alabama since 1992, Jones proved that Democratic fears […] Read more »

Allegations, Democratic surge doomed Roy Moore, exit poll shows

In the end, a combination of two different storylines doomed Republican Roy Moore in Alabama’s Senate race, according to the exit poll of the contest. The first revolved around the multiple allegations of sexual misconduct against Moore, with one woman charging him with initiating a sexual encounter with her when […] Read more »