A year ago, almost nobody would have guessed that Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) would drop out of the Democratic presidential race before the Iowa caucus. Like Marco Rubio and Scott Walker in 2016, Harris had the potential to be a consensus candidate: someone who could satisfy the demands of […] Read more »
When primary debates really matter (and when they don’t)
The first debates of the 2020 Democratic primary season are nearly upon us. Over the course of two nights on Wednesday and Thursday, 20 candidates will hope for a breakout moment. Sometimes a candidate hitting the right key at the right moment can turn a debate into a game changer. […] Read more »
Three reasons you should expect congressional gridlock on gun control
Since the mass shooting in Parkland, Fla., Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School students have been crusading for tightening gun laws and expanding mental-health resources — and have put those issues firmly in public discussion. Some congressional lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans, have endorsed various ways to tighten gun laws, including […] Read more »
Marco Rubio says banning all semiautomatic weapons is ‘a position well outside the mainstream.’ Polls show otherwise.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) unintentionally drew a round of raucous applause Wednesday night when he said at a CNN town hall gathering that, to effectively ban assault weapons, “you would literally have to ban every semiautomatic rifle that’s sold in America.” Later, he attempted to characterize support for a blanket […] Read more »
The End of the 114th Congress
The 114th Congress has finally ended. The most polarized Congress since the early 20th Century and one where almost all issues have been drawn into the first dimension [we will address dimensionality in a future post; the current period is unique in American history]. CONT. Voteview Read more »
No, disgruntled primary losers won’t vote for the other party in November
… Some scholars say hotly contested primaries encourage voters to support the final candidate in a general election; others say that bitter partisans may support alternative candidates. To explore this question, we looked at vote choice in the 2008 presidential election, which, as is true in 2016, had no incumbent […] Read more »