The End of the 114th Congress

The 114th Congress has finally ended. The most polarized Congress since the early 20th Century and one where almost all issues have been drawn into the first dimension [we will address dimensionality in a future post; the current period is unique in American history]. CONT. Voteview Read more »

No, disgruntled primary losers won’t vote for the other party in November

… Some scholars say hotly contested primaries encourage voters to support the final candidate in a general election; others say that bitter partisans may support alternative candidates. To explore this question, we looked at vote choice in the 2008 presidential election, which, as is true in 2016, had no incumbent […] Read more »

Warren Is Top V.P. Pick for Clinton Supporters, Gingrich for Trump

More than a third of likely voters backing Democrat Hillary Clinton in the latest Bloomberg Politics national poll say she should pick Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, a darling of the party’s liberal wing, as her running mate. On the Republican side, almost a third of likely voters supporting Donald […] Read more »

Republicans Rejected Elite Agenda Along With Rubio

Marco Rubio’s crushing defeat Tuesday night in his home state of Florida not only smashed his presidential campaign, it also represented a revolt against the policy agenda of Republican elites and donors on which Rubio’s platform was modeled. CONT. Sahil Kapur, Bloomberg Politics Read more »

Titanic Tuesday: Trump Leads but Doesn’t Finish the Job

Donald Trump could have generated unstoppable momentum had he won both Ohio and Florida. But now it’s clear to everyone that this will go right through June 7, the end of the Republican primary season. Most observers appear to think that the Republicans are headed for a contested convention now, […] Read more »

Trump’s Path Stays Clearest; Clinton’s, Perhaps More So

This much came clear in the March 15 presidential primaries: Many voters like Donald Trump, while many others don’t. John Kasich is popular in his home state, while Marco Rubio isn’t. Strong conservatives support Ted Cruz. And Hillary Clinton can win Midwestern primaries. For Clinton, that might be enough, or […] Read more »

For the Anti-Trump Forces, It May Be Now or Never

As we’ve suggested, the past few weeks have been defined by increasingly-loud talk of a contested convention and the possibility that the presidential contest will go beyond the first ballot, something that has not happened in either party since 1952. The highly unusual circumstances on the Republican side, where the […] Read more »

CBS/YouGov online poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida

Donald Trump keeps his lead in winner-take-all Florida, at 44 percent over Ted Cruz’s 24 percent and Marco Rubio’s 21 percent. In Ohio, Governor John Kasich is tied with Trump 33 percent to 33 percent, in two of the big winner-take-all delegate prizes up on Tuesday. … On the Democratic […] Read more »