Party Hoppers: Understanding Voters Who Switched Partisan Affiliation

Partisan affiliation is one of the most stable features of the modern American electorate. While individuals’ feelings toward politicians or their attitudes about policy can change quickly, partisanship is a deep-seated identity resistant to change. Within the last five years, however, we have observed a significant amount of partisan switching […] Read more »

Could Roy Moore flip deep-red Alabama to blue?

As allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore multiply and polls suggest he could lose the senate race he once led by double-digits, political analysts offer one cautionary refrain: Remember, it’s Alabama and he’s a Republican. But a look at Moore’s last general election in the state shows its voters […] Read more »

Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.

Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to […] Read more »

Taking Trump’s Temperature Amongst His Supporters (and Opponents), Part 2

Last week, we released the results of a national poll of voters who said they supported President Donald Trump in the 2016 election, as well as focus groups of mostly Trump voters (but also some voters who either supported Hillary Clinton or voted third party last year). We found that […] Read more »

Reaching Out to the Voters the Left Left Behind

The devastating recession that began at the end of 2007 and officially ended in June 2009 was the most severe downturn since World War II. The political, social and even medical consequences of this recession have been duly noted, but even so the depths of its effects are only now […] Read more »

How Trump Broke the Blue Wall

President-elect Donald Trump’s success at breaking the so-called “blue wall” – those Rust Belt states that had voted for a Democrat in every election since at least 1992 – was the key to his victory. To help understand how he did this, I compared exit poll data from the last […] Read more »

Trump Seen as Less Conservative Than Prior GOP Candidates

Donald Trump’s political views, in the eyes of U.S. registered voters, are the least conservative of GOP presidential candidates in recent history. About six in 10 registered voters have viewed recent Republican nominees as conservative or very conservative, with George W. Bush’s 68% in 2004 the highest. CONT. Justin McCarthy, […] Read more »