The incident that served as the best predictor of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary actually happened in 2011. That October, then-Gov. Rick Perry (R-Tex.) was leading the Republican field as the party tried to identify a candidate who could beat incumbent President Barack Obama. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll, […] Read more »
When primary debates really matter (and when they don’t)
The first debates of the 2020 Democratic primary season are nearly upon us. Over the course of two nights on Wednesday and Thursday, 20 candidates will hope for a breakout moment. Sometimes a candidate hitting the right key at the right moment can turn a debate into a game changer. […] Read more »
Presidential Primary Debates Can Make — And Break — A Campaign
It might sound strange, but presidential primary debates are arguably more important than general election debates. Primary voters have weak initial preferences and can vacillate among candidates, so they can be heavily influenced by events like debates. Primary debates do not attract nearly as many eyeballs as general election debates, […] Read more »
The Republican Candidates Donald Trump Has Hurt the Most
Donald Trump is hurting all his fellow Republican presidential candidates, though some more than others. Rick Perry, who suspended his campaign on Friday, is at the top of that list but is far from alone. To assess the flow of support among the many candidates since Mr. Trump entered the […] Read more »
Hispanics Frown on Trump, but Not Rest of GOP Field
U.S. Hispanics are still getting to know most of the Republican contenders for president. At this point in the campaign, less than half have formed an opinion of any Republican candidate except Donald Trump and Jeb Bush. Partly because of this, Hispanics’ views of most GOP candidates range from mildly […] Read more »
The Rise and Fall of Shooting-Star Candidates
… What is happening now in the Republican primary is not that different from what happened in 2012. And despite the excitement and attention that Mr. Trump is generating, others who were in his same position four years ago fell out of the spotlight after several weeks of being the […] Read more »