Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign

The Democratic campaign has taken on the feel of “Groundhog Day,” repeating the same storyline over and over with only minor variation. Hillary Clinton, in our view, has spent most of the year in the liminal space between “clear favorite” and “presumptive nominee.” CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »

What to Look For in Tuesday’s East Coast Primaries

Opinion polls indicate Tuesday’s slate of Democratic and Republican primaries are likely to reaffirm the leads of the two front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But the results Tuesday night will be about more than simple momentum; they will tell us a lot about the state of races that have […] Read more »

Model Shows Clinton as Favorite in Most of Tuesday’s Primaries

Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton appears to be a solid favorite in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, as well as a marginal favorite in Connecticut. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders appears to be a favorite in Rhode […] Read more »

A State Sized Just Right to Contain Its Pride

… Poor Little Rhody. Not only is it the smallest state, it is often a punch line. And in many state rankings, it comes out on top for the wrong things, like having the nation’s highest rate of unemployment. Now comes yet another blow to the state’s fragile self-esteem. A […] Read more »