Can the Democratic Party rise again? Yes — and here’s the first big thing to watch.

If you care about whether the Democratic Party can rebuild itself anytime soon out of the smoking wreckage left behind by the disastrous 2016 elections, something very important is happening a lot sooner than you think. There are more than three dozen gubernatorial races taking place in the next two […] Read more »

Are the voters really mad as hell?

… If there’s a new “silent majority” in the nation, they are not tea party activists or Millennials feeling the “Bern.” They are the tens of millions of Americans who are not angry, but remaining silent. In Iowa this year — despite all the buildup, the TV commercials and the […] Read more »

Gerrymandering Widens Gap Between Popular Vote and Control of Congress

Gerrymandering is an oft-cited reason for voter dissatisfaction and the lack of competitive congressional elections. There is validity to this complaint, as the disparity between the national popular vote for congressional candidates and the resulting seat distribution has become historically large due to redistricting. Simply stated, those who are elected […] Read more »

Growing Urban-Rural Split Provides Republicans With Down-Ballot Advantages

The 2012 election provided two powerful reminders about the electoral implications of overly-concentrated Democratic voters. First, the Republicans held their U.S. House majority, won in 2010, despite the fact that the Democratic candidates in the 435 House districts received more votes than their Republican opponents. Second, these House results were […] Read more »

The House the GOP Built: How Republicans Used Soft Money, Big Data, and High-Tech Mapping to Take Control of Congress and Increase Partisanship

… The gerrymander of 2011 built such a firewall around GOP control of the House that when Barack Obama was reelected in 2012, Democratic congressional candidates earned 1.4 million more votes than Republicans, but the GOP retained a 234-201 majority. You might even argue it worked too well, creating the […] Read more »

Trump Did Not Break Politics

Politics, we’re often told, is governed by rules — basic principles that explain not just what’s going to happen, but what rational candidates and parties can be expected to do. … Mr. Trump is not the first to test the basic assumptions about how politics works and how we predict […] Read more »