Trump’s Job Approval in First Quarter Lowest by 14 Points

Donald Trump averaged 41% job approval during his first quarter as president, 14 percentage points lower than any other president in Gallup’s polling history. Bill Clinton had the previous low mark of 55%. The average first-quarter rating among post-World War II presidents elected to their first term is 61%, with […] Read more »

Forget the ’60s—The Real Generation Gap Is Happening Right Now

Since the election last month, we have seen a parade of analyses examining how Clinton supporters differ from Trump supporters along the dividing lines of race, education, and geographic residence. The persistence of partisan differences by age in American elections, however, has received somewhat less attention. … Hillary Clinton may […] Read more »

Popular Presidents Factor Little in Non-Incumbent Elections

The Ronald Reagan presidency offers the most recent historical clues as to whether President Barack Obama’s popularity could affect voters’ choices for president in November. Like Obama, Reagan was earning job approval ratings in the low to mid-50s in the second half of his eighth year. And the Republican nominee […] Read more »

Republicans Need to Get Ready for the Trump Aftershock

This week’s cascade of Republican defections from Donald Trump has plunged the GOP into the deepest general-election divide over its presidential nominee in more than 50 years. The apex of modern GOP general-election conflict came in 1964 when Barry Goldwater, as the tribune of an emerging Sunbelt- and suburbia-based conservative […] Read more »

Pessimism Might Not Be a Winning Bet for Republicans

A political lifetime ago, Ronald Reagan’s pollster seized on this question to frame the campaign’s argument during his 1980 presidential campaign: “Is the country headed in the right direction, or is it on the wrong track?” … In the New York Times-CBS News poll for July, 26 percent of respondents […] Read more »

The End Of A Republican Party

… Many have assumed that adherence to a certain conservative purity was the engine of the GOP, and given the party’s demographic homogeneity, this made sense. But re-evaluating recent history in light of Trump, and looking a bit closer at this year’s numbers, something else seems to be the primary […] Read more »