The Media Has A Probability Problem

… In recent elections, the media has often overestimated the precision of polling, cherry-picked data and portrayed elections as sure things when that conclusion very much wasn’t supported by polls or other empirical evidence. … Probably the most important problem with 2016 coverage was confirmation bias — coupled with what […] Read more »

Trump’s approval again reaches 40% after positive reaction to hurricane response

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has once again reached 40%, while earning high marks for his handling of the government’s response to recent hurricanes, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. A broad 64% of Americans say they approve of how Trump’s government reacted to the recent storms, […] Read more »

Why Trump’s Softening on Immigration Is Unlikely to Splinter His Base

In a matter of weeks, President Trump has twice struck deals with Democrats in Congress that have left many of his supporters flummoxed. … But the informal DACA agreement with Democrats is unlikely to be the move that splinters his re-election coalition. Partnering with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi on […] Read more »

Divided Democratic Party Debates Its Future as 2020 Looms

… On the surface, the Democratic Party has been united and energized by its shared disgust for Trump. But dig an inch deeper and it’s clear that the party is divided, split on issues including free trade, health care, foreign affairs and Wall Street. They even disagree over the political […] Read more »

NBC/WSJ Poll: Public Likes Trump’s Bipartisan Move — But Little Else

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has inched up, and more than 70 percent of Americans support his recent deal with Democratic leaders to provide hurricane relief and keep the government open for 90 days, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. But the same poll finds that only […] Read more »

Trump Voters Not Bothered by Overtures to Democrats

Despite a far-right outcry about Donald Trump’s dealings with Congressional Democrats, it appears that the president’s base has not deserted him as his job approval rating remains stable in the latest Monmouth University Poll. While some Trump voters would be upset if he softened his position on a core issue […] Read more »