Trump Could Definitely Beat Biden

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 Republican primary is not certain. But it now looks more than merely likely. … Without question, Trump is an exceptionally weak general-election candidate. To no small extent, his personal odiousness does much of the Democratic Party’s persuasion-and-mobilization work for it. … But that doesn’t […] Read more »

Joe Biden Isn’t Popular. That Might Not Matter in 2024.

By almost any historic yardstick, President Joe Biden is beginning the reelection campaign he formally announced today in a vulnerable position. His job-approval rating has consistently come in at 45 percent or less; in several recent high-quality national polls, it has dipped closer to 40 percent. In surveys, three-fourths or […] Read more »

Why 2024 could be the most boring presidential primary season ever

For people who write about electoral, or “horse race,” politics, few things are more enjoyable than an exciting presidential primary season. Sometimes, both Democrats and Republicans cooperate by holding gripping fights for the party nods (see 2008). Sometimes, however, voters in both parties quickly coalesce around front-runners (see 2000). A […] Read more »