Are The U.K. Polls Skewed?

In April, when U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May called for a “snap” general election for June 8, polls showed her Conservatives with an average lead of 17 percentage points over Labour. … Recent surveys show Labour zooming up in the polls and Conservatives having declined somewhat (although some of Labour’s […] Read more »

A Smarter Way to Interpret 2017’s Special Elections

The results of individual special elections, like Thursday’s in Montana between Democrat Rob Quist and Republican Greg Gianforte, can’t always foretell what will happen in the next high-stakes midterm. Each district presents its own unique set of variables, like flawed candidates or dreadfully unpopular governors. But taken collectively, the margins […] Read more »

Predicting 2016 State Presidential Election Results with a National Tracking Poll and MRP

Donald Trump’s widely unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election has raised questions about the accuracy of public opinion polling, the aggregation of polling into probabilistic election forecasts and the interpretation of election polling by data analysts, journalists and the general public. While national-level polls on average proved as […] Read more »

Are Democrats headed toward a wave election?

Quinnipiac’s recent national poll made quite a splash when it reported a Democratic lead of 16 points on the generic Congressional ballot question. Indeed, conventional wisdom – as well as historical trends – suggests that Democrats, as the party opposite that of the new president and in the Congressional minority, […] Read more »