Key Points• Despite a second indictment, Donald Trump remains in a strong position in the GOP presidential primary field.• Trump continues to earn majorities or near-majorities in polls, far outpacing his rivals, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.• Republicans would rather have a nominee they agree with than an electable one. […] Read more »
The indictment, the primaries, and 2024
Donald Trump added to his long list of firsts Thursday, becoming the first former president to face federal criminal charges, relating to his alleged unlawful possession of classified documents. With the GOP primaries heating up and more challengers jumping in the race, we will see how this new indictment plays […] Read more »
How strong is Trump? He’s beating Republican rivals in their home states
… In recent years, national polling leaders at this point in the primary season who would go on to lose their party nominations did so in part because they lost the Iowa caucuses. That happened to the two candidates with the largest national leads: Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary […] Read more »
DeSantis camp puts cart before horse race
The cornerstone of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s campaign for the Republican presidential nomination is clearly going to be that he is more electable than former President Trump. DeSantis’s own statements push that narrative. And conveniently—but likely not coincidentally—as DeSantis prepares his official announcement, several polls have come out that show […] Read more »
Not Biden vs. Trump Again! The Disgruntled Voters Who Could Decide the 2024 Election
Key Points• Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection.• However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still have less negative attitudes toward […] Read more »
Stop Freaking Out Over Every 2024 Poll
Not long after the Washington Post/ABC poll was released on Sunday, the “hot take” machines started whirring furiously online and inside the Beltway. The poll, which showed former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by six points (45% to 39%), “is an outlier,” cried many left-leaning commentators as well […] Read more »