Trump will have a very hard time overcoming his approval ratings

Donald Trump’s weekly approval rating in Gallup polling last week sunk to his lowest average yet, with just 35% of adults giving him positive marks for his performance as President. He hasn’t averaged 40% approval over a full week in the Gallup daily surveys since May — and hasn’t even […] Read more »

Will the 2018 Midterms Follow Historic Patterns?

In political handicapping you often have to reconcile a conflict between macro and micro dynamics. The macro, or big-picture factors, focus on the sitting president, with his popularity highly relevant to the election outcome. The micro factors include seats and incumbents that are up for election, local political circumstances, and […] Read more »

The Normal Rules Of Politics Still Apply To Trump — And To Republicans In Congress

One of the big questions heading into the 2018 midterm elections — maybe the biggest — is how President Trump’s unpopularity will affect Republican fortunes. Normally, a president with historically low approval ratings would be a disaster for his party in Senate and House races in a midterm year. But […] Read more »