Will Trump’s Approval Rating Be A Problem For Republicans In 2018?

… Trump’s historic unpopularity provides a glimmer of hope to Democrats, who are currently shut out of power in every elected division of the federal government. “Maybe, just maybe,” the thinking goes, “a backlash to Trump’s policies could jump-start a Democratic wave that could flip control of Congress in 2018.” […] Read more »

Political Pollsters Reflect On What Went Wrong In 2016

2016 was a year of failure for political polling in several Western democracies. France, Britain and the U.S. were all taken by surprise after polls underestimated the support for conservative presidential candidates and Brexit. Now, pollsters in all three countries are reflecting on what went wrong. All Things Considered, NPR Read more »

The 2016 national polls are looking less wrong after final election tallies

UPDATE: This post from shortly after the November election has been updated to reflect accuracy of polls after states certified their vote counts. National polls were more accurate than they appeared immediately after the election, as Hillary Clinton’s two percentage-point advantage in the popular vote was similar to her three-point […] Read more »

How pollsters could use social media data to improve election forecasts

Donald Trump’s Nov. 8 victory surprised almost everyone. But if pollsters had looked at Twitter, they might have recognized that the race was close — or so we learned in our recent research. Even when polls were showing a big lead for Hillary Clinton, real-time analysis of social media was […] Read more »