House: Ratings Changes in Seven Districts as GOP Majority in Peril

If it wasn’t already clear, last Tuesday’s election results confirmed a political atmosphere that would seriously endanger the House GOP’s majority in 2018. In Virginia, turnout was up 20 percent over 2013 in localities won by Hillary Clinton, compared to 13 percent in localities carried by President Trump. Not only […] Read more »

Politics & Polls podcast: The Day the Donkey Roared

Democrats triumphed in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races Nov. 7, which some say is a strong rebuke to Republican President Donald Trump. Are the democratic victories a predictor of what’s to come in the midterm results next year? Joining this episode are Larry Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley of […] Read more »

How Republican losses in Virginia could mean real trouble for the GOP in 2018

In 1897, an earthquake that hit 5.8 on the Richter scale shook Virginia and was felt across 12 other states. Six months later, William McKinley’s Republican Party experienced its own disaster in Virginia, losing 15 seats in the state House of Delegates. Not until Tuesday night did another such earthquake […] Read more »

Poll Hub: How the polls fared in the Virginia governor’s race

The pre-election polls in Virginia were wildly inconsistent. The disparate methodologies, specifically how samples were selected, muddied the narrative of the gubernatorial contest. As the Poll Hub team explains, the traditional method of conducting live interviews using a Random Digit Dial sampling method proved the most accurate in predicting this […] Read more »

Post-ABC poll: Voters favor Democrats over Republicans in 2018 House midterms by widest margin in years

Voters say they prefer Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives over Republicans by the widest margin in over a decade, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll — a fresh sign of trouble for the GOP majority one year before the midterm elections. But Democrats’ effort to convert […] Read more »