The Last Two Weeks of Polls Have Been Great for Republicans. Do They Signal a Shift?

Last month it seemed that Democrats might ride a giant tsunami to control of the House and Senate. Now, some are wondering whether there’s a Democratic wave at all. … The question isn’t really whether Republican standing has improved recently. It has. The question is whether anyone should care: Is […] Read more »

Better poll sampling would have cast more doubt on the potential for Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 election

… In a perfect world, polls sample from the population of voters, who would state their political preference perfectly clearly and then vote accordingly. However, results from small random samples can be quite unreliable due to extremely narrow electoral margins. To calculate the probability of winning the 2016 US presidential […] Read more »

FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Which Version Of Trump’s Presidency Is Happening?

On the eve of President Trump’s first official State of the Union address, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast checks in on how his administration is doing, and which of the 14 versions of Trump’s presidency that Nate outlined about a year ago look like they could still happen. The team also […] Read more »

Polls show ‘no one’ cares about the Russia investigation, White House press secretary said. That’s not true.

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said President Trump will not address the ongoing investigation into collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia because no Americans care about the issue. At Monday’s White House briefing, Sanders said: “We spend more time on that than we do any other topic […] Read more »

Trump’s First State of the Union: How Will it Affect the State of Play?

Tomorrow night, President Trump will deliver his first State of the Union (SOTU) address to Congress and the American people. With Trump’s approval rating currently clocking in at 36% approve/59% disapprove according to Gallup, one might naturally assume that the SOTU offers the perfect opportunity for Trump to hit the […] Read more »

ESPN Exploring Sale of FiveThirtyEight

By the time mid-term election season really heats up, Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight will in all likelihood have a different platform than ESPN. The Big Lead has learned that ESPN is exploring its options to sell or otherwise divest from the brand. CONT. Ryan Glasspiegel, The Big Lead Read more »