Intelligence Squared: Nate Silver on the Art and Science of Prediction Read more »
Video: Data and Decisions
Nate Silver, Steven Brams, Andrew Britton and Zach Messitte discuss the Ripon College commencement theme, Data and Decisions. Read more »
Video: The Democracy Data Revolution
The Democracy Data Revolution: Simon Jackman at TEDxSydney Read more »
Is There Really a Second-Term Curse?
President Obama is facing one of his roughest stretches in office after questions about the government’s response to the attacks in Benghazi, Libya, the admission by the Internal Revenue Service that it inappropriately targeted conservative groups which sought tax-exempt status, and the revelation that the Justice Department subpoenaed communications by [...] Read more »
Pollsters scramble to explain how polls could be so wrong in three provinces
Canada’s pollsters have struck out and are now scrambling to explain how their predictions in three consecutive provincial elections turned out to be so wildly wrong. Strike three came Tuesday when Christy Clark’s Liberals came back from the polling dead to easily recapture government in British Columbia. [cont.] The Canadian [...] Read more »
One-Third of the Public Doesn’t Care about Immigration Reform
A new iMediaEthics poll suggests Americans are more laid back about immigration reform than what most polls show, with about a third of the public unengaged on the issue. The rest appear to be about evenly divided on whether to allow immigrants living illegally in the U.S. to remain or [...] Read more »
Nate Silver: The Data Demystifier
… Evaluating the ingenuity of Silver’s mathematical models can be difficult. But it’s easy to admire his accuracy and the savvy with which he chooses the problems he wants to solve. “I’ve tried to pick fields where the competition was not that good,” he says, laughing. He’s actually serious. When [...] Read more »
Polls at this point in the Virginia governor’s race tell us very little
Virginia’s 2013 gubernatorial election may not have particularly appealing candidates, but the race has taken on extra meaning because of the state’s swing status in presidential elections. The race pits a so-far unlikable Democrat, Terry McAuliffe (aka T-Mac), against a exceptionally conservative Republican, attorney general Ken Cuccinelli (aka Cuch). [cont.] [...] Read more »
Sanford and the Electoral Effect of Sex Scandals
Tuesday night’s special election in South Carolina’s First Congressional District was won by the Republican Mark Sanford, the former South Carolina governor whose political career was imperiled in 2009 after he disclosed an extramarital affair. As we almost always say about special elections, the race probably does not tell us [...] Read more »
After Mark Sanford’s win, embarrassed pollsters go back to the drawing board
Mark Sanford is heading off to Washington DC, while pollsters are heading back to their workshops. His victory by 9pt over Elizabeth Colbert Busch in South Carolina’s first district special election was surprisingly large. The last two public polls from Public Policy Polling (PPP) and Red Racing Horses (RRH) had [...] Read more »