Why Republicans Are Always Looking Over Their Shoulders

The sudden appointment of Robert S. Mueller as a special counsel for the federal investigation into the Trump campaign’s relationship with Russia highlights a key question: Which choice poses the greater risk for Republicans in Congress, to support a potential impeachment or to close ranks behind the president? To defy […] Read more »

Why populism is a threat to electoral integrity

Since the earthquake of Brexit in June last year, and Trump’s victory four months later, the news has been dominated by stories about populism, including whether European elections suggest that populist support is either rising or stalled. The media has also been fascinated simultaneously by problems of electoral integrity. This […] Read more »

Even The Biggest Scandals Can’t Kill Party Loyalty

There have been lots of questions, especially among liberals, about when congressional Republicans might turn on President Trump, particularly in the wake of his controversial firing of FBI Director James Comey and the reports late Monday that he compromised classified information. The assumption behind these questions is that at a […] Read more »

French voters are just as divided as American ones

Marine Le Pen. AP Photo/Michel Euler   Michele Gelfand, University of Maryland and Joshua Conrad Jackson, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill On May 7, France will choose its next president. In the first round of voting on April 23, voters rejected candidates from the country’s established parties, lifting […] Read more »

The Ways That the 2016 Election Was Perfectly Normal

It’s no secret that the state of the nation’s economy and party identification matter in most American presidential elections. Candidates know it, consultants know it, political scientists know it, and voters seem aware of the relationship, too. … In actuality, the state of the nation’s economy — growing slowly — […] Read more »

Racism motivated Trump voters more than authoritarianism

During the 2016 presidential campaign, many observers wondered exactly what motivated voters most: Was it income? Authoritarianism? Racial attitudes? Let the analyses begin. Last week, the widely respected 2016 American National Election Study was released, sending political scientists into a flurry of data modeling and chart making. … Below, I’ll […] Read more »

Conservative Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion Among American Political Elites

The conservative asymmetry of elite polarization and the right-skewed “democratic deficit”—wherein policy is more conservative than majorities prefer on average—represent significant puzzles. We argue that such breakdowns in aggregate representation can arise because politicians systematically misperceive constituency opinion. We demonstrate this argument in US states, where conservative citizens are more […] Read more »