Places with the fewest immigrants push back hardest against immigration

As President Donald Trump’s trip to Arizona is certain to demonstrate, immigration remains one of the most polarizing issues in American politics. But the central political fault line around the dispute follows a surprising path. The paradox of this emotional debate is that generally the states and communities with the […] Read more »

Democrats Need a Message, Not a Program

Democrats are in terrible shape. Republicans control all three branches of government in Washington, 34 of 50 governorships, and 68 of the 99 state legislatures. As they plot a comeback, Democrats have one obvious asset: the reckless presidency of Donald Trump. That’s not enough to close such a huge gap. […] Read more »

A Deal Breaker for Trump’s Supporters? Nope. Not This Time, Either.

… It was a week of incessant tumult, when Mr. Trump tumbled into open warfare with some in his own party over his statements on the violence in Charlottesville, Va.; business executives abandoned his advisory councils; top military leaders pointedly made statements denouncing racism in a way he did not; […] Read more »

Will the 2018 Midterms Follow Historic Patterns?

In political handicapping you often have to reconcile a conflict between macro and micro dynamics. The macro, or big-picture factors, focus on the sitting president, with his popularity highly relevant to the election outcome. The micro factors include seats and incumbents that are up for election, local political circumstances, and […] Read more »

Trump’s Confederate statue stance grew from success with ‘identity politics’

For two long days, President Trump’s responses to the violent events in Charlottesville has been recorded as a disaster. … Trump has been here before. The president’s ability to dive into controversies and come safely out the other end has given pause to critics, right and left, who wonder how […] Read more »

What Defines Trump

If it’s not already obvious by now, President Trump’s tangled, mangled and bungled response to Charlottesville reminds us that his is a presidency run on gut and instinct and fealty to his base. There’s no desire to reach out – or reach across – or unite. It’s to incite and […] Read more »