The Democrats’ ‘Working-Class Problem’

The road to a sustainable Democratic majority—nationally, locally, and in the states—must include much higher Democratic performance with white working-class voters (those without a four-year degree). Nearly every group in the progressive infrastructure is busy figuring out how Democrats can get back to the level of support they reached with […] Read more »

Has the Democratic Party Gotten Too Rich for Its Own Good?

During his primary campaign against Hillary Clinton, Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist, lived up to the grand Democratic tradition of favoring the underdog at the expense of the rich. … But Sanders spoke to the Democratic Party of 2016, not the Democratic Party of the Great Depression. … In […] Read more »

Black Voters Aren’t Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party

… Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group’s historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It’s possible that Clinton could never inspire black turnout the way the first African-American president could. But even if this shift is more […] Read more »

Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.

Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to […] Read more »

What Democrats’ Losses in 2010 Can Tell Us About G.O.P.’s Chances in 2018

There’s no way to know how the health care debate in Congress will play out, but there’s a lot of reason to think that the House vote to replace the Affordable Care Act has put Republicans on a risky path heading into next year’s midterm elections. CONT. Nate Cohn, New […] Read more »

Taking Trump’s Temperature Amongst His Supporters (and Opponents), Part 2

Last week, we released the results of a national poll of voters who said they supported President Donald Trump in the 2016 election, as well as focus groups of mostly Trump voters (but also some voters who either supported Hillary Clinton or voted third party last year). We found that […] Read more »