What Democrats’ Losses in 2010 Can Tell Us About G.O.P.’s Chances in 2018

There’s no way to know how the health care debate in Congress will play out, but there’s a lot of reason to think that the House vote to replace the Affordable Care Act has put Republicans on a risky path heading into next year’s midterm elections. CONT. Nate Cohn, New […] Read more »

Taking Trump’s Temperature Amongst His Supporters (and Opponents), Part 2

Last week, we released the results of a national poll of voters who said they supported President Donald Trump in the 2016 election, as well as focus groups of mostly Trump voters (but also some voters who either supported Hillary Clinton or voted third party last year). We found that […] Read more »

Why did Trump win? New research by Democrats offers a worrisome answer.

As the Democratic Party rebuilds itself for the 2018 and 2020 elections, Democratic strategists have been preoccupied with a pressing question: Why did so many voters who backed Barack Obama in 2012 switch to Donald Trump four years later, and what can be done to win them back? Top Democratic […] Read more »

Partisans embrace damning accusations about Trump helping Russians, Obama spying on Trump

Sizable minorities of Americans think that President Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russians to help him win the 2016 election and that President Barack Obama spied on the Trump campaign, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Views of both claims being investigated by Congress are colored dramatically by […] Read more »

Republicans and Democrats split over Russia probes

It’s a partisan cold war right here at home: A majority of Democrats think now-President Donald Trump’s campaign tried to help Russia influence the 2016 election, while a majority of Republicans think former President Barack Obama’s administration spied on the Trump campaign. And fewer than half of Americans — in […] Read more »

Why Republicans Don’t Fear a Shutdown, But Should

For many Republicans, it’s a fairly simple calculation: There was a supposedly catastrophic government shutdown in 2013 and the GOP gained 13 House seats a year later. So what’s the big deal if the government shuts down again? With another funding deadline on the horizon, selective memory loss could have […] Read more »

Nearing 100 days, Trump’s approval at record lows but his base is holding

President Trump nears the 100-day mark of his administration as the least popular chief executive in modern times, a president whose voters remain largely satisfied with his performance, but one whose base of support has not expanded since he took the oath of office, according to a new Washington Post-ABC […] Read more »

President Trump at 100 Days: No honeymoon, but no regrets

There’s no honeymoon for Donald Trump in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, but also no regrets: He approaches his 100th day in office with the lowest approval rating at this point of any president in polls since 1945 –- yet 96 percent of those who supported him in November […] Read more »

Trump’s Job Approval in First Quarter Lowest by 14 Points

Donald Trump averaged 41% job approval during his first quarter as president, 14 percentage points lower than any other president in Gallup’s polling history. Bill Clinton had the previous low mark of 55%. The average first-quarter rating among post-World War II presidents elected to their first term is 61%, with […] Read more »