President Biden has lackluster poll numbers, and they seem stuck. Democrats can’t pass much legislation on Capitol Hill. There is wide pessimism within the party about the midterms. So a familiar blame game has begun: Message X, Person Y or Campaign Tactic Z is killing the party. The problem? Virtually […] Read more »
2021 shows Republicans shouldn’t fear high voter turnout
The Republican Party did very well on Tuesday. Beyond its win in the Virginia gubernatorial election, it came quite close to capturing the New Jersey governor’s mansion. And the GOP did it in a way that might scare some Democrats: higher voter turnout. At least in this era, Republicans don’t […] Read more »
Why Was the New Jersey Gubernatorial Race So Close?
… In New Jersey, Phil Murphy, the incumbent Democrat, beat Jack Ciattarelli, his Republican challenger, and became the first Democrat to win reëlection as the Garden State’s governor in forty-four years. But the result was much closer than expected. … On Election Night this week, the race between Murphy and […] Read more »
Democrats fear political wipeout in next year’s midterms
The results out of Virginia and New Jersey on election night, along with the rejection of progressive ideology in deep-blue jurisdictions across the country, came as a rude awakening for Democrats. While party leaders were already preparing for a difficult midterm election, the scope of Republican gains in suburbanized, Democratic-friendly […] Read more »
Polling Institute director says it may be time to get rid of election polls
Danielle Kurtzleben speaks with Patrick Murray, director of the Polling Institute at Monmouth University, about the future of election polls after their recent failures to predict results. NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Virginia and New Jersey Elections in National Context
Elections for state offices reflect state-specific issues, the personalities and backstories of the candidates running for office, and the dynamics of the campaigns. State elections can also reflect trends and circumstances occurring at the national level. This last point is important, given the tendency of many observers to use the […] Read more »