Ticket-Splitters Could Be Key for Vulnerable GOP Senate Incumbents

Of all the campaign issues that incumbent Republican senators face in 2016, the most vexing may be Donald Trump. As their party’s presidential nominee sinks in the polls, Republican senators in battleground states must decide if they should align with him or hitch their fortunes to that rarest group of […] Read more »

9-State Battleground Poll: Trump’s Rustbelt play faltering

Donald Trump’s unpopularity, beliefs, values and leadership qualities are forging a new 2016 battleground for the election of the President and U.S. Senate. Trump and Clinton no longer face symmetric image problems. With 60 percent viewing Trump unfavorably and half of presidential year voters saying they will never vote for […] Read more »

Who Will Win the Nominations? Lessons From Iowa and New Hampshire

… Despite their small populations, tiny numbers of national convention delegates and racially homogeneous electorates, the national parties continue to allow Iowa and New Hampshire to exert an outsized influence on the selection of the presidential nominees by kicking off the primary and caucus season. Because they go first and […] Read more »

Similarities, differences in Iowa, NH

The first two nominating events of this election cycle, Iowa and New Hampshire, produced different winners in both parties. Why? It wasn’t an intervening event or an issue that played importantly in one locale but not the other. Some claim the differences derive from the varying demographics of the two […] Read more »

Hillary Clinton Needs To Win The Voters She Lost In 2008

Just as in 2008, Tuesday’s New Hampshire’s primary created an “a-ha moment,” illuminating the contours of each Democratic candidate’s coalition. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that Hillary Clinton is relying on a coalition that looks almost the opposite of the one she assembled in 2008. Eight years ago, she prevailed among […] Read more »