Titanic Tuesday: Trump Leads but Doesn’t Finish the Job

Donald Trump could have generated unstoppable momentum had he won both Ohio and Florida. But now it’s clear to everyone that this will go right through June 7, the end of the Republican primary season. Most observers appear to think that the Republicans are headed for a contested convention now, […] Read more »

Trump’s Path Stays Clearest; Clinton’s, Perhaps More So

This much came clear in the March 15 presidential primaries: Many voters like Donald Trump, while many others don’t. John Kasich is popular in his home state, while Marco Rubio isn’t. Strong conservatives support Ted Cruz. And Hillary Clinton can win Midwestern primaries. For Clinton, that might be enough, or […] Read more »

For the Anti-Trump Forces, It May Be Now or Never

As we’ve suggested, the past few weeks have been defined by increasingly-loud talk of a contested convention and the possibility that the presidential contest will go beyond the first ballot, something that has not happened in either party since 1952. The highly unusual circumstances on the Republican side, where the […] Read more »

A Simple Model for Predicting Hillary Clinton’s Vote in the March 15 Democratic Primaries

A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable for region — explain over 90% of the variance in Hillary Clinton’s vote share in this year’s Democratic primaries through March 8. The results of a regression analysis of Clinton’s […] Read more »

Racial, Generational & Political Divisions Mark Americans’ Attitudes on Ferguson

Americans divide evenly on last week’s grand jury decision in Ferguson, Missouri – with vast racial, political and generational gaps defining public attitudes on the volatile issue. Overall, 48 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll approve and 45 percent disapprove of the grand jury’s decision not to bring criminal […] Read more »