The recent electoral optimism among Democrats has many causes: gas prices are down, Biden’s legislative victories are up, and Republicans are nominating candidates from New Hampshire to Arizona who appear to be out of step with the voters. But the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a woman’s right to an […] Read more »
Conventions Can Boost the Incumbent. Did It Work This Time?
The last two presidential re-election campaigns followed a similar playbook: define the opposition early on the most important issue, emphasize a few cultural wedge issues to rally the base while appealing to a few swing voters, and reinvigorate supporters at the convention. It was enough for George W. Bush in […] Read more »
4 ways Biden’s running mate could help — or hurt — the Democratic ticket
We know that Joe Biden’s vice presidential pick will be a female and that the announcement is coming very soon. Beyond that, it’s a mystery, though several contenders have emerged, including Sen. Kamala Harris, Rep. Karen Bass and Susan Rice, among others. Presidential nominees of the past have taken very […] Read more »
Cruel primary history lessons Joe Biden won’t want to hear
Joe Biden is the national front-runner in the Democratic presidential race. He is holding a steady lead in national polling, and his campaign boasts of the firewall he’s established among African American voters, who may be the key to victory in the Feb. 28 South Carolina primary and who have […] Read more »
How much sway do past Democratic nominees have? Unless you’re Barack Obama, not much.
Once they won the Democratic presidential nomination. But do their endorsements matter now? Unless your name is Barack Obama, not really. A national USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll asked likely Democratic voters whom among the party’s past presidential nominees would have the most influence on their vote today. Two-thirds named former president […] Read more »
What we can learn from the 2004 presidential race
Beware of reading too much into presidential polls. Take, for example, the 2004 race. An August 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup national survey found Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for vice president, leading the party’s presidential field with 23 percent. He was trailed by former House Majority (and Minority) […] Read more »